Urban Heat Island Intensity and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities in Northern Italy’s provinces (2015–2022)

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) elevate temperatures in cities relative to rural areas, posing risks to public health, energy consumption, and urban sustainability. This study examines UHI intensity across all 47 NUTS 3 regions in Northern Italy from 2015 to 2022. It explores how UHI relates to socio-economic vulnerabilities, including GDP per capita, unemployment rate, population density, and the percentage of people aged 65 and over. Utilizing remote sensing, QGIS, Google Earth Engine (GEE), and R’s Generalized Additive Model (GAM), the research models non-linear connections between UHI and these indicators. The goal is to provide evidence-based insights for climate adaptation and local development policies in Northern Italy.