Assessing Alternative Forest Recovery Strategies for Bark Beetle-Prone Areas: An Ecosystem Service Approach Applied to the Asiago Plateau, Northern Italy

Forest ecosystems in Europe face threats from many severe natural disturbances, including windstorms and BB infestations, exacerbated by climate change. These disturbances cause significant ecological and economic damage, challenging traditional forest management strategies and impacting socio-ecological systems both locally and regionally. This study assesses the effectiveness of alternative forest recovery strategies in an area prone to natural hazards (Asiago Plateau, Northern Italy), focusing on ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and habitat quality. The study focuses on identifying the optimal trade-offs between the ecological restoration and economic viability, in the long-term and short-term. Mixed-methods approach combining quantitative (geospatial data, remote sensing, and spatially explicit ecosystem service modelling, such as InVEST) and qualitative (policy and literature review) method is used. Data collected on forest damage, recovery, and management practices in the Asiago Plateau span the 2018-2023 period and future projected scenarios (IS and NIS) for the year 2123. NIS potentially enhance biodiversity, carbon storage capacity and habitat quality but IS intensifies the habitat degradation and decrease the ecological resilience. Also, spatial projection shows a long-term decline in the forest cover and a sufficient increase in the degraded and transitional lands. The adaptive and mixed strategy design for the spatial risk and conservation values are identified to be very important to maintain ecosystem functions. Sustainable forest management on the Asiago Plateau requires flexible and risk-informed strategies that include restoration, biodiversity protection, and economic objectives. Long-term spatial monitoring, climate-resilient planning, and context-specific approaches are essential for resilience in the face of increasing disturbances.