Wolf Population in the Italian Alps Within the Framework of Rewilding Processes: a Preliminary Analysis of Economic Impacts

The return of wolves (Canis lupus) to the Italian Alps is a salient case of rewilding within a historically and densely human-shaped landscape. This thesis examines the economic implications of wolf recolonisation for two key alpine sectors – livestock farming and tourism – through the lens of the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). Using spatial and temporal datasets, the analysis tries to isolate wolf-related effects from broader background trends and drivers. Results provide limited evidence of a systematic wolf-driven decline in cattle farming, suggesting instead that the decrease in livestock numbers reflects a broader ongoing decline of the local traditional farming systems. By contrast, impacts on sheep and goat populations seem to be more substantial: an estimated wolf-driven shortfall of ~34,000 sheep and goats and ~640 breeding farms was identified for the period 2009-2024, with effects intensifying over time. Outcomes in the tourism sector were more ambiguous; high variability and limited data prevented clear attribution of either negative or positive impacts. Despite alarms expressed by many operators, wolf presence may also offer opportunities for ecotourism and territorial marketing, suggesting possible pathways to reduce the human-wildlife conflicts. From an ACF perspective, the case reveals a highly polarized narrative that underscores the need for stronger initiatives for awareness raising, communication, and cooperation among key stakeholder groups to mitigate frictions and foster coexistence opportunities.