Fiscal Determinants of Public-Private Partnership Adoption: Evidence from Kazakhstan’s Regions

"This thesis investigates the main drivers for Public-Private Partnership (PPP) adoption over the period of 2010-2024 across 16 regions (‘oblasts’) of Kazakhstan. With the balanced panel dataset which was constructed using data from the Bureau of National Statistics, Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan and the PPP projects’ database, I investigate which fiscal factors predict PPP adoption and timing of first adoption. The empirical approach involved Linear Probability Models for adoption, survival analysis for timing and Negative Binomial model for robustness check. The results show that fiscally constrained regions are more likely to adapt PPP but with the introduction of year fixed effect, variation in adoption disappears, indicating that the National PPP Law in 2015 was the primary driver for the adoption of PPPs, whereas the regional fiscal characteristics determined the intensity of PPP use. The findings of this study contribute to the literature on PPP development in emerging economies, carrying implications for regional fiscal policy."