Ghana's cocoa sector and associated deforestation risks: an assessment within the framework of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)

Cocoa is one of Ghana’s most important agricultural commodities, contributing significantly to national economic development and rural livelihoods. However, cocoa production has historically been associated with deforestation. Besides raising concerns about possible social, economic, and ecological impacts of cocoa production and trade, this raises compliance concerns under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which requires cocoa and other forest-risk commodities placed on the EU market to be deforestation-free. This study analyses the development of Ghana’s cocoa sector and assesses associated deforestation risks, considering the EUDR framework. The study uses secondary data from different sources covering mainly the period 2000–2024. Descriptive trend analysis, correlation analysis, comparative analysis, decomposition analysis, and destination-market analysis were applied. The results show that Ghana’s cocoa production increased during much of the study period, reaching its highest level in 2021, before declining in 2024. Harvested area also declined strongly after 2021, while yield continued to improve. While cocoa beans remained the dominant export product, cocoa-derived products have become increasingly important, with their share of total cocoa export value increasing from 10.91% in 2000 to 43.23% in 2024. Cocoa production was strongly positively correlated with embodied deforestation risk (r = 0.701) and moderately positively correlated with tree cover loss (r = 0.544), while its relationship with primary forest loss was weaker (r = 0.325). Production growth in the 2000–2011 period was mainly yield-driven, with the yield effect contributing 219,545.7 tonnes to the total production increase of 263,420 tonnes. In the 2012–2018 period, production growth was mainly supported by harvested-area expansion, while yield declined. Between 2019 and 2024, cocoa production fell by 281,700 tonnes, mainly due to the decline in harvested area, although yield improvement partly offset the decline. EU countries accounted for 865,724 tonnes, equivalent to 52% of Ghana’s cocoa bean exports between 2021 and 2024, with the Netherlands being the largest destination, accounting for 21%, while non-EU countries accounted for 797,335 tonnes, equivalent to 48% of total Ghanaian cocoa exports. This indicates that Ghana’s cocoa sector is strongly exposed to EUDR requirements. The findings suggest that maintaining access to EU markets will require sustainable cocoa intensification and robust forest monitoring in Ghana. Overall, the study shows that Ghana has made progress in productivity improvement and value addition. Still, the risk of deforestation remains a significant concern for the cocoa sector's future development and regulatory compliance.