The Political Determinants of Migration Closure: Democratic Backsliding, Radical Right Influence, and Supranational Integration in Europe (1990–2019)

The question of what actually drives governments to restrict migration has become one of the most contested issues in contemporary European politics. This research investigates the internal political factors that influence the restrictiveness of migration policies across 31 European countries from 1990 to 2019. The study tests three main hypotheses derived from the existing literature. First, it examines whether democratic backsliding, measured by a decline in the V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index, leads to more restrictive policies by weakening the institutional "veto points," such as independent courts and parliamentary oversight, that normally constrain executive action. Second, it tests whether the electoral success of radical right parties in national parliaments drives mainstream parties to adopt stricter migration stances, producing a "contagion effect" across the political spectrum. Third, it examines whether deeper integration into the EU migration regime, specifically through the Schengen and Dublin systems, acts as a structural driver of restrictiveness, as states adopt supranational security standards as a "cost of admission." Using a quantitative panel data regression analysis in R, mainly based on the DEMIG-QuantMig database, the study argues that migration restriction is not simply a response to external socio-economic pressures—it is fundamentally a product of domestic political dynamics.