Rebound effects for shifting to electric vehicles in nordic households

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has become a central component of climate change mitigation strategies, particularly in the Nordic countries, where ambitious transport policies and low-carbon electricity systems have accelerated the transition towards electric mobility. However, lower operating costs associated with EVs may encourage increased vehicle use, partially offsetting expected environmental benefits through a behavioural response known as the rebound effect. Despite growing policy interest, empirical evidence on EV-related rebound effects at the household level remains limited. This thesis examines whether EV ownership is associated with changes in annual vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) among households in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Furthermore, it investigates whether these relationships vary according to climate concern and degree of urbanisation. The analysis is based on harmonised Nordic household survey data combined with consumption-based carbon footprint indicators. Multivariable regression models were estimated to compare EV-owning and non-EV households while controlling for household income, household size, degree of urbanisation, and country-specific characteristics. Additional subgroup analyses were conducted to assess differences across climate concern groups. The results provide no evidence of a direct rebound effect. After accounting for socioeconomic and spatial characteristics, EV-owning households travelled significantly fewer annual vehicle kilometres than otherwise similar non-EV households. While climate concern showed only limited moderation of the relationship between EV ownership and driving behaviour, degree of urbanisation remained an important determinant of household mobility. The findings suggest that concerns regarding substantial direct rebound effects from EV adoption may be overstated in the Nordic context. By combining household-level mobility data with consumption-based carbon footprint indicators, this thesis contributes to the growing literature on sustainable mobility and provides empirical evidence to support the role of transport electrification in reducing operational emissions while highlighting the continued importance of socioeconomic and spatial factors in shaping travel behaviour.