Innovation Diffusion Models: Extending the Generalized Bass Model with Structured Shocks

Innovation diffusion models are used to describe and forecast the adoption of new products and technologies. The Bass Model has become a fundamental reference in this field, providing a simple and parsimonious framework for studying the life cycle of innovations. The Generalized Bass Model extends it by introducing intervention functions that capture structured shocks, allowing exogenous factors affecting the diffusion process to be taken into account. The main focus of this thesis is to propose new forms of intervention functions. The proposed extensions are then evaluated through applications to real data.