Flood Damage Assessment in Mokwa LGA, Nigeria: A Multi-Criteria and Historical Mapping Approach

Flooding remains a persistent and devastating hazard in Nigeria, with the frequency and intensity of events escalating dramatically in recent decades. Niger State, particularly the Mokwa Local Government Area (LGA) situated along the River Niger corridor, exemplifies this vulnerability, having experienced catastrophic flooding in 2022 and again in June 2025—the latter resulting in over 160 confirmed deaths, 1,590 displacements, and widespread destruction of farmland and critical road infrastructure. Despite these recurring tragedies and the Federal Government's designation of Mokwa as a high-risk zone, preventative evacuation and mitigation measures remain conspicuously absent, exposing a critical weakness in local disaster preparedness systems. Furthermore, comprehensive, localized flood risk assessments and damage inventories are lacking, hindering evidence-based decision-making. This study aims to address these gaps by assessing flood risk and damage in Mokwa LGA and translating findings into actionable mitigation and adaptation strategies. Employing an integrated methodological framework, this research combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Nine flood hazard factors—including elevation, slope, proximity to rivers, drainage density, rainfall, land use/land cover, soil type, topographic wetness index, and flow accumulation—are analyzed alongside six vulnerability parameters: population density, built-area extent, road network density, distance to medical facilities, employment rate, and literacy rate. All datasets, sourced from open-access repositories and satellite platforms (including UNOSAT imagery), are processed and classified using ArcGIS Pro's Spatial Analyst Tools to generate composite flood risk maps and delineate historical inundation extents from 2015 to 2025