Sviluppo di un algoritmo ingegneristico per la valutazione e la classificazione del rischio di collisione satellitare

The frequency of space launches since the beginning of the space age has increased exponentially. The current number of orbital debris and hence orbital collisions is one of the most debated issues at present and for which various solutions are being sought. An inevitable need has arisen to regulate such launches and to determine the risk associated with space missions as effectively as possible. This need has been intensified by recent events that have shaken up the space market, leading to the growth of the private sector and the ambition to put not only military but also civilian astronauts into orbit. All this clearly defines the world's intentions, and in addition to sanctioning the start of space privatisation, it also imposes more stringent regulation and protection for stakeholders and space environment in general. This can be done mainly through an accurate study of space risk, which requires knowledge of possible single events, their probability of occurrence and their severity. Nowadays, several studies are known for the calculation of individual risk, but the scientific community and the space market are looking for a global and collective assessment of collision risk, i.e., the risk related to events that do not cause the failure of a single mission but may affect the whole orbital community. This thesis focuses on the development of a new engineering algorithm for the calculation of collision risk to provide a possible subsequent classification and interpretation of the hazards that a satellite and a space ecosystem may face.