Climate change represents one of the globally recognized major threats to human life and ecosystems, where human activities, particularly fossil fuel production and consumption, are the leading causes. Welsby and colleagues (2021) estimated that in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, by 2050, more than two-third of the remaining fossil fuels reserves must remain unburned. Different efforts in scientific research are in progress to mitigate these impacts: one of these are the so-called unburnable carbon projects. These projects respond to the need of defining policies and identifying criteria to equitably define where to leave fossil fuels untapped. The research activities of the “Climate Justice Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence” of University of Padua are inserted within this framework. The Centre main objectives are i) to spread the effort of EU on Climate Justice and policies for energy transition by implementing innovative and interdisciplinary courses; ii) to explore the added value of energy transition and “unburnable carbon” scenarios for various domestic policy areas in the European continent and iii) to disseminate results of teaching and researching by exchanging experiences and new tools to promote dialogue between the academic world and society. Within the efforts of the Centre, the aims of this thesis are to identify economic-, energy-, environmental-, infrastructural- and sociocultural criteria to equitably assign the common but differentiated efforts for each country in phasing out the production of fossil fuels. Therefore, these selected criteria will provide a basis to enable simulations between different Countries or within a selected Country or area, as a way to equitably define where is most required to curb fossil fuels extraction, a key element to ensure a fair energy transition consistent with a pathway towards a limitation of global temperature increasing, as set out by The Paris Agreement. Specifically, this aim has been achieved by building an indicators database from which selected indicators have been chosen as equity criteria. In order to operationalize some of the criteria identified in the first part, the second part of the thesis regards the development of a within-country spatial multi-Criteria analysis for unburnable carbon in the offshore and onshore areas of the United Kingdom, with the purpose to identify potential unburnable carbon areas for an energy transition in highly sensitive biodiversity, social and cultural areas. In order to carry out the analysis, a UK Continental Shelf cadaster has been created in a GIS environment, and geographical criteria for the analysis have been selected and weighted according to two development visions, i.e an “ecological protection” scenario where highest scores have been assigned to protected areas, natural features and renewable energy potential criteria, therefore prioritizing conservation/energy transition aspects and a “production” scenario where highest scores have been assigned to production and infrastructural criteria, prioritizing oil and gas industry economic development. The preliminary database construction led to the selection of 197 indicators from which equity criteria have been proposed and discussed. A first proposal has identified several economic- (e.g., GDP), energy- (e.g., Global Photovoltaic Power Potential), infrastructural- (e.g., Annual emissions at proposed fossil fuel projects), environmental- (e.g., Global Climate Risk Index) and sociocultural criteria (e.g., Human Development Index). For what concerns the UK within country analysis, the results have shown that in the central and northern North Sea are currently located the most productive blocks whereas in the southern part are located the majority of unburnable blocks, for which it will be easier to cease the production.
Il cambiamento climatico rappresenta una delle maggiori minacce per l’umanità e gli ecosistemi ed è principalmente causato dall’ attività di estrazione e dall’uso di combustibili fossili. Welsby e colleghi (2020) hanno stimato che per limitare il riscaldamento globale a 1.5°C, entro il 2050 sarà necessario non sfruttare e non bruciare più di due terzi delle restanti riserve di fonti fossili. La ricerca scientifica sta mettendo in atto diversi sforzi per mitigare gli impatti causati dal cambiamento climatico: un esempio sono i progetti unburnable carbon. Questi progetti provano a fornire indirizzi e identificare criteri per definire in un modo giusto ed equo dove lasciare i combustibili fossili nel sottosuolo. Le linee di ricerca del “Centro di Eccellenza Jean Monnet per la Giustizia Climatica” dell’Università di Padova si inseriscono in questo contesto. I principali obiettivi del centro sono i) diffondere lo sforzo dell’UE sulla giustizia climatica, e le politiche per la transizione energetica implementando corsi innovativi e interdisciplinari, ii) esplorare il valore aggiunto degli scenari di transizione energetica e di “unburnable carbon” per vari ambiti di politica interna nell’UE e iii) diffondere i risultati dell’insegnamento e della ricerca attraverso lo scambio di esperienze e di nuovi strumenti per promuovere il dialogo tra il mondo accademico e la società. Inserita nella ricerca del Centro, questa tesi si propone come obiettivi di identificare criteri economici, energetici, ambientali, infrastrutturali e socioculturali per assegnare in un modo giusto ed equo i differenti sforzi che i paesi saranno chiamati ad attuare per terminare la produzione di combustibili fossili. A questo proposito, questi criteri forniranno una base per consentire lo sviluppo di simulazioni tra paesi o intra paese, attraverso le quali si potrà definire dove è più giusto ridurre o terminare le attività di estrazione. Il phase-out della produzione di combustibili fossili è infatti un elemento chiave per rimanere in linea con gli impegni presi dai paesi per limitare il riscaldamento globale, come indicato dagli accordi di Parigi. Nello specifico, questo obiettivo è stato raggiunto costruendo un database di indicatori dal quale alcuni sono stati in seguito proposti come criteri equi. Per mettere in pratica alcuni dei criteri selezionati, la seconda parte della tesi riguarda lo sviluppo di un’analisi spaziale multi-criteriale intra paese nelle zone onshore e offshore del Regno Unito, al fine di identificare potenziali aree dove è possibile lasciare petrolio e gas nel sottosuolo e quindi permettere una transizione energetica, soprattutto in aree ad alto valore ecologico, culturale e sociale. L’analisi è stata sviluppata tramite la costruzione di un progetto GIS riguardante l’area della piattaforma continentale del Regno Unito e tramite la selezione e la pesatura di alcuni geo-criteri in base alla simulazioni di due diversi tipi di sviluppo i) uno scenario di “conservazione ecologica” in cui sono stati assegnati pesi maggiori ai criteri ecologico-ambientali e a quelli riguardanti le energie rinnovabili e gli aspetti sociali e ii) uno scenario “produttivo” nel quale maggiori valori sono stati assegnati ai criteri riguardanti la produzione e le infrastrutture dell’ industria fossile. Nel database preliminare sono stati individuati 197 indicatori dai quali sono stati selezionati e discussi i criteri per un’equa distribuzione degli sforzi tra i vari paesi. Per quanto riguarda l’analisi intra paese per il Regno Unito i risultati hanno mostrato che la maggior parte dei blocchi più produttivi sono localizzati nel mare del Nord centrale e settentrionale mentre nella parte sud è localizzata la maggior parte dei blocchi dove sarebbe prioritario cessare la produzione in un’ottica di conservazione ecologica.
Equity and climate justice: a first proposal of criteria towards a transition away from fossil fuels and unburnable carbon scenarios for the United Kingdom
VEZZELLI, DANIELE
2021/2022
Abstract
Climate change represents one of the globally recognized major threats to human life and ecosystems, where human activities, particularly fossil fuel production and consumption, are the leading causes. Welsby and colleagues (2021) estimated that in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, by 2050, more than two-third of the remaining fossil fuels reserves must remain unburned. Different efforts in scientific research are in progress to mitigate these impacts: one of these are the so-called unburnable carbon projects. These projects respond to the need of defining policies and identifying criteria to equitably define where to leave fossil fuels untapped. The research activities of the “Climate Justice Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence” of University of Padua are inserted within this framework. The Centre main objectives are i) to spread the effort of EU on Climate Justice and policies for energy transition by implementing innovative and interdisciplinary courses; ii) to explore the added value of energy transition and “unburnable carbon” scenarios for various domestic policy areas in the European continent and iii) to disseminate results of teaching and researching by exchanging experiences and new tools to promote dialogue between the academic world and society. Within the efforts of the Centre, the aims of this thesis are to identify economic-, energy-, environmental-, infrastructural- and sociocultural criteria to equitably assign the common but differentiated efforts for each country in phasing out the production of fossil fuels. Therefore, these selected criteria will provide a basis to enable simulations between different Countries or within a selected Country or area, as a way to equitably define where is most required to curb fossil fuels extraction, a key element to ensure a fair energy transition consistent with a pathway towards a limitation of global temperature increasing, as set out by The Paris Agreement. Specifically, this aim has been achieved by building an indicators database from which selected indicators have been chosen as equity criteria. In order to operationalize some of the criteria identified in the first part, the second part of the thesis regards the development of a within-country spatial multi-Criteria analysis for unburnable carbon in the offshore and onshore areas of the United Kingdom, with the purpose to identify potential unburnable carbon areas for an energy transition in highly sensitive biodiversity, social and cultural areas. In order to carry out the analysis, a UK Continental Shelf cadaster has been created in a GIS environment, and geographical criteria for the analysis have been selected and weighted according to two development visions, i.e an “ecological protection” scenario where highest scores have been assigned to protected areas, natural features and renewable energy potential criteria, therefore prioritizing conservation/energy transition aspects and a “production” scenario where highest scores have been assigned to production and infrastructural criteria, prioritizing oil and gas industry economic development. The preliminary database construction led to the selection of 197 indicators from which equity criteria have been proposed and discussed. A first proposal has identified several economic- (e.g., GDP), energy- (e.g., Global Photovoltaic Power Potential), infrastructural- (e.g., Annual emissions at proposed fossil fuel projects), environmental- (e.g., Global Climate Risk Index) and sociocultural criteria (e.g., Human Development Index). For what concerns the UK within country analysis, the results have shown that in the central and northern North Sea are currently located the most productive blocks whereas in the southern part are located the majority of unburnable blocks, for which it will be easier to cease the production.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12608/33772