In a global context that aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, green hydrogen is seen as a viable alternative to electricity in the so-called 'hard to abate' sectors, and as a substitute to traditional polluting fuels, such as natural gas and diesel. With the targets set by Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU plan on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it is required to take a step-in favour of green fuels such as hydrogen produced from renewable sources through electrolysis. Therefore, this thesis aims to develop an incentive mechanism for the production of green hydrogen and apply it in several case studies to test its effectiveness. In this thesis, after a broad overview of the various methods of hydrogen production and of the end uses that this vector can support, an incentive scheme is proposed based on two contributions, one to recover the investment costs and the other to recover the operational costs. Then, two versatile models are developed, one in an Excel environment and one in a Python environment, which compute the incentive given to a specific green hydrogen producer and the gain associated with the production and sale of hydrogen, when the proposed incentive scheme is adopted. Finally, carrying out several sensitivity analyses allows assessing the impact of the most significant parameters (such as electricity and natural gas prices, efficiency, operating hours, CAPEX, etc.) on the producer’s gain and so on the effectiveness of the incentive scheme. The incentive scheme fixes a certain maximum amount of hydrogen that can be incentivised per year, computed using a number of equivalent operating hours of a photovoltaic system in Italy. Since the incentive is only given on a certain maximum production, this mechanism disadvantages plants to produce higher quantities of hydrogen than the incentivised one, favouring a non-virtuous behaviour. Under certain price conditions, the hydrogen producer obtains a gain, which is however not very high because the production is limited. Furthermore, the mechanism sets a fixed incentive that does not vary with the chosen renewable source (PV, wind, or biomass) and the investment costs of the chosen electrolysis technology, possibly leading to higher expenditure for the State than necessary. To overcome these limitations, other possible solutions can be considered, such as the implementation of an incentive that varies with the equivalent operating hours and thus the chosen renewable source. Another incentive mechanism can be the auction mechanism, as for the electricity market, which automatically brings to the incentive of the most virtuous case studies. These solutions are proposed as possible improvements to this work.
In un contesto globale che mira a ridurre le emissioni di anidride carbonica nell'atmosfera, l'idrogeno verde è visto come una valida alternativa all'elettricità nei settori cosiddetti "Hard to abate" e come un sostituto dei tradizionali combustibili inquinanti, come il gas naturale e il diesel. Con gli obiettivi fissati dal piano Fit-for-55 e REPowerEU sulla riduzione delle emissioni di gas serra, diventa necessario fare un passo avanti a favore dei combustibili verdi come l'idrogeno prodotto da fonti rinnovabili attraverso l'elettrolisi. Questa tesi si propone di sviluppare un meccanismo di incentivazione per la produzione di idrogeno verde e di applicarlo in diversi casi di studio per testarne l'efficacia. In questa tesi, dopo un'ampia panoramica dei vari metodi di produzione dell'idrogeno e degli usi finali che questo vettore può supportare, viene proposto uno schema di incentivazione basato su due contributi, uno per il recupero dei costi di investimento e l'altro per il recupero dei costi operativi. Vengono poi sviluppati due modelli versatili, uno in ambiente Excel e uno in ambiente Python, che calcolano l'incentivo dato a uno specifico produttore di idrogeno verde e il guadagno associato alla produzione e alla vendita di idrogeno, quando viene adottato lo schema di incentivi proposto. Infine, l'esecuzione di diverse analisi di sensitività permette di valutare l'impatto dei parametri più significativi (come il prezzo dell'elettricità e del gas naturale, l'efficienza, le ore di funzionamento, il CAPEX, ecc.) sul guadagno del produttore e quindi sull'efficacia dello schema di incentivazione. Il sistema di incentivazione fissa una certa quantità massima di idrogeno incentivabile all'anno, calcolata utilizzando un numero di ore di funzionamento equivalenti di un impianto fotovoltaico in Italia. Poiché l'incentivo viene erogato solo su una certa produzione massima, questo meccanismo sfavorisce gli impianti che producono quantità di idrogeno superiori a quelle incentivate, sfavorendo così un comportamento virtuoso. A determinate condizioni di prezzo, il produttore di idrogeno ottiene un guadagno, che però non è molto elevato perché la produzione è limitata. Inoltre, il meccanismo stabilisce un incentivo fisso che non varia in funzione della fonte rinnovabile scelta (fotovoltaica, eolica o biomassa) e dei costi di investimento della tecnologia di elettrolisi scelta, comportando eventualmente per lo Stato una spesa superiore al necessario. Per superare queste limitazioni, si possono prendere in considerazione altre soluzioni possibili, come l'implementazione di un incentivo che varia con le ore di funzionamento equivalenti e quindi con la fonte rinnovabile scelta. Un altro meccanismo di incentivazione può essere quello delle aste, come per il mercato elettrico, che porta automaticamente all'incentivazione dei casi di studio più virtuosi. Queste soluzioni sono proposte come possibili miglioramenti di questo lavoro.
Incentivizing green hydrogen generation: proposal of an incentive scheme and its evaluation in case studies
LUCA, GIONATA
2022/2023
Abstract
In a global context that aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, green hydrogen is seen as a viable alternative to electricity in the so-called 'hard to abate' sectors, and as a substitute to traditional polluting fuels, such as natural gas and diesel. With the targets set by Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU plan on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it is required to take a step-in favour of green fuels such as hydrogen produced from renewable sources through electrolysis. Therefore, this thesis aims to develop an incentive mechanism for the production of green hydrogen and apply it in several case studies to test its effectiveness. In this thesis, after a broad overview of the various methods of hydrogen production and of the end uses that this vector can support, an incentive scheme is proposed based on two contributions, one to recover the investment costs and the other to recover the operational costs. Then, two versatile models are developed, one in an Excel environment and one in a Python environment, which compute the incentive given to a specific green hydrogen producer and the gain associated with the production and sale of hydrogen, when the proposed incentive scheme is adopted. Finally, carrying out several sensitivity analyses allows assessing the impact of the most significant parameters (such as electricity and natural gas prices, efficiency, operating hours, CAPEX, etc.) on the producer’s gain and so on the effectiveness of the incentive scheme. The incentive scheme fixes a certain maximum amount of hydrogen that can be incentivised per year, computed using a number of equivalent operating hours of a photovoltaic system in Italy. Since the incentive is only given on a certain maximum production, this mechanism disadvantages plants to produce higher quantities of hydrogen than the incentivised one, favouring a non-virtuous behaviour. Under certain price conditions, the hydrogen producer obtains a gain, which is however not very high because the production is limited. Furthermore, the mechanism sets a fixed incentive that does not vary with the chosen renewable source (PV, wind, or biomass) and the investment costs of the chosen electrolysis technology, possibly leading to higher expenditure for the State than necessary. To overcome these limitations, other possible solutions can be considered, such as the implementation of an incentive that varies with the equivalent operating hours and thus the chosen renewable source. Another incentive mechanism can be the auction mechanism, as for the electricity market, which automatically brings to the incentive of the most virtuous case studies. These solutions are proposed as possible improvements to this work.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12608/45217