Bottom-up energy analysis of the Italian residential building stock: current state and future scenarios

In 2019, the European Commission presented the Green Deal, a package of proposals to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This plan and EU energy policies are crucial to speed up the decarbonization process, trying to reach carbon-neutrality by 2050. In this perspective, Italy has outlined the first phase of the plan’s implementation for the period 2021-2030 in the “Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima” (PNIEC), which is now extended with new REPowerEU investments. The residential sector accounts for approximately 30% of the final energy consumption in Italy, and a significant share of it is covered by natural gas, emphasizing the importance of focusing on its decarbonization. In this framework, this thesis contributes to the existing discussion by analysing the current state of energy consumption in the Italian residential building stock and by presenting a possible scenario for 2050. The analysis of the current state focuses on the energy vectors employed, the end-uses of energy and the correlation between dwelling characteristics and their energy consumption. In order to assess the total energy consumption accurately, a bottom-up approach was adopted, using a model based on data collected by ISTAT from a 2013 survey. The scenario presented is based on expected changes in climatic condition, technology replacement and retrofits of buildings. The analysis provides a correlation between possible measures and the effect they might have on the stock energy consumption. The scenario presented is then compared to one where technology replacement and building retrofits do not occur. Finally, this thesis concludes with a discussion on possible pathways to achieve complete decarbonization of the Italian residential sector and the challenges posed by these changes.