Analyzing the Impact of Migration on Economic and Fiscal Variables: A VAR Model Approach

The objective of this thesis is to empirically analyze the dynamic relationships between fiscal and economic variables using the VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The main goals are to understand how these variables interact and to assess the implications for economic and fiscal policy decision-making. Statistical tests have been conducted, and additional results have been analyzed to determine the significance of the findings. The relevant fiscal and economic variables of the study are then identified, and their roles within the specific context under investigation are discussed. The methodology employed in this thesis involves estimating a multivariate VAR model, which captures the dynamic interactions between the variables of interest over time. Specifically, the study focuses on the effects of migration in Italy. The analysis is based on a historical dataset that spans a sufficiently long period to capture long-term trends