Aspettative soggettive di sopravvivenza e partecipazione al mercato azionario: uno studio condotto in quindici paesi diversi

Is the underestimation of lifetime horizon a reason for the low participation in stock markets? Using wave 6 of SHARE, I analyse this empirical relationship across 15 different countries. Interestingly, it emerges a great heterogeneity in how participants self-evaluate their lifetime horizon. I find that stock market participation and underestimation are negatively correlated, the more you underestimate your life the less you participate in the market. Precisely, a 1 standard deviation increase in the underestimation lowers by about 1% the stock market participation. This effect seems to be stronger for the younger participants in my sample (50-64 years), where the reduction in stock market participation associated with underestimation is almost 2%. I extend the analysis to the equity share invested in the market. Accounting for endogenous sample selection, I study the effect of underestimation on equity share. In opposition to what found by Spaenjers and Spira (2015), in my sample underestimation does not affect the equity share. Finally, I analyse whether there are differences in the effect of underestimation on both share invested and stock market participation in respondents with bequest motives. In both cases the effect goes in the expected direction but it is not significant, as opposed to what found by Spaenjers and Spira (2015) for the US.