Sounding the Future: An Analysis of Music Streaming Dynamics and Forecasting Strategies

This thesis examines the ever-changing music streaming industry, delves into market behaviors, and projects revenue trends. The study begins with an in-depth exploration of the European music streaming market from 2020 to 2022. By analyzing revenue data and consumer preferences, this research uncovers patterns and seasonal variations across various European countries. Additionally, it identifies shared platform choices and market behaviors, offering valuable insights into the coordinated evolution of the market. The study subsequently meticulously analyzes the complex nuances of the Italian music streaming scene, analyzing trends and seasonality from 2016 to 2022. Employing various forecasting models, the research aims to identify the most accurate for predicting streaming revenue trends in Italy up to the culmination of 2024. This thesis contributes a nuanced understanding of global and national music streaming ecosystems, amalgamating rigorous market analysis with sophisticated forecasting techniques. The findings suggest that musical consumption, particularly in terms of consumer preferences, exhibits geographical influence. Proximate countries tend to exhibit shared preferences in music platform usage and demonstrate analogous behavior in market revenue trajectories. Specifically, Italy mirrors the broader European trend, sustaining robust growth in recent years. The implementation of models such as exponential smoothing and the prophet model promises to yield highly accurate estimations of music streaming revenues in the country for the forthcoming months, thanks to the clear characteristics of the series.