Analysis of wind power capacity credit in Finland

This thesis explores two independent calculation methods for the capacity credit of wind energy in Finland for the year 2022. This will help determine the adequacy of generation on peak demand days. Since the wind generation fleet's capacity increases significantly each year, the calculations were repeated for the period 2004–2021, thanks to the creation of a model that was able to predict the output that would be achieved each year if the 2022 fleet was used. The first approach is a time-period-based method, which uses duration curves of statistical and forecasted wind power generation. Many results are provided: the capacity credit of each year and each winter, the entire 18-year period and the top load periods. For each result, the 90%, 95%, 98% and 99% confidence values are presented. The second one is a risk-based method, which considers the reliability of the whole generation fleet and gives the added value of wind power to the power system. Different interconnection scenarios with neighbouring countries were analysed to understand the impact of imports on Finland's electricity grid and the overall resilience of its generation system.