SCENARIO MODELLING OF LANDSLIDE IMPACTS IN BELLUNO, ITALY

In the Belluno province of Italy, landslides are a common natural disaster, leading to substantial loss of life and infrastructure. In the past, several studies have shown the significance of the assessment of landslide susceptibility and hazard in the region of Belluno. However, in this study, we present the impacts caused by landslides in the Cordevole river basin in Belluno, Italy. The study focuses on knowing the source and runout modelling of the landslides to plan strategies aimed at mitigating such natural hazards. To obtain the source areas, we first derive the stability of slopes and their associated Factor of Safety (FoS) by Bishop’s Limit Equilibrium Method using the open-source software SCOOPS3D from USGS. Then, from the available susceptibility map of the Cordevole catchment, we extract the areas with the highest susceptibility and the lowest FoS and segregate them based on their corresponding slope units. We use the extracted area as the input for Release Areas in the open-source Gravitational Process Path (GPP) modelling framework in SAGA-GIS to compute the respective process path and run-out area. For calibration and validation of the process path and run-out areas, we refer to the past landslide inventories available.