Analysis of the Consensus approach for effective demand forecasting: the EssilorLuxottica case

This thesis delves into the analysis of the consensus-based approach in demand planning processes. It aims to highlight the effectiveness of this method and identify improvement interventions in the specific context of EssilorLuxottica, a company operating in the eyewear industry, a highly dynamic market where demand planning activities are crucial for competitive success. Consensus activities stem from a collaborative management approach that enables the company to enhance forecast accuracy and process effectiveness. First, it is carried out through a careful review of published academic papers in the field of the demand planning in order to provide theoretical foundations supporting the case study, which is illustrated in the second part of the thesis. The first chapter introduces the role and the structure of the demand planning process within the supply chain management and the concept of forecast accuracy is introduced. The second chapters present the different forecasting methods, divided into qualitative and quantitative. The third chapter focuses on the consensus approach for sales forecasting and the role of people in the process. The second part of the thesis is dedicated to the presentation of the case study, which is the result of the experience accumulated during an internship. After a brief overview of the company, it is described the consensus activity, the functions involved in the process, the monthly workflow and the monitoring of KPIs related to forecasting accuracy. In the last chapters criticalities and weaknesses of the process are discussed and possible improvements for the future are suggested.