A bottom-up model to estimate italian electricity consumption for residential households

Nowadays, electricity consumption in the residential sector is strongly changing, not only due to the great diffusion of Renewable Energy Sources installation but also due to new changing paradigms, like the spread of electric heating (heat pumps) and electric vehicles. In this scenario, it becomes necessary to properly estimate these consumptions with precise tools, which can help the many actors involved in the building energy consumption sector, such as policymakers, grid operators, building managers, and owners. Concerning this research topic, this thesis aims to present a data-driven bottom-up methodology to estimate the electric consumption of appliances and devices in Italian households, with the specific goal to be integrated in the Urban Building Energy Modeling tool EUReCA. The method is based on data from the Italian Statistic Institute survey on the consumption of Italian families, done in 2013, which includes data on the presence and usage of electric appliances from 20 000 different users, statistically relevant for the whole country. These data are processed to calculate regional penetration and Probability Distribution Functions of the consumption for different appliances. Results from this method are finally compared with 2021 average consumption data from the Electric Grid Authority (ARERA) to determine the method's reliability and possible changes in average consumption.