Cost of early school leaving in Africa

The statistics on early school leaving among adults in Africa indicate a wide gap compared to rest of the world which could undermine the economic growth of Africa. Hence, among other factors, this study assesses the cost of early school leaving on economic growth of Africa. Furthermore, it examines how factors such as birthrate, population growth, unemployment, education expenditure, dependency ratio affects early school leaving in Africa. The panel data used in the study comprised of Chad, Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria. Data collected for the study are gathered from the World Bank and UNESCO for the period of 1990 -2022. To analyze the data, a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was considered. The long run and short run results suggested that birthrate, dependency ratio, unemployment and education expenditure have a significant positive impact on early school leaving. However, the results showed that population is statistically insignificant in influencing early school leaving. Further, it was found that early school leaving has a significant but positive impact on economic growth, on the contrary, birthrate, dependency ratio, both have a negative effect on economic growth. This has implications for policy makers in developing nations such as those that comprise the African panel data. To ensure sustainable economic growth, it is important to regulate the population, reduce unemployment, and invest heavily in education. However, since the results show that early school leaving has a negative effect on economic growth, Africa should minimize the occurrence of early school leaving, which in turn can positively contribute to economic growth. Moreover, the results further suggest that higher employment is associated with lower economic growth, and there is a need for policies that promote efficient labour market transitions.