Assessing fire risk in abandoned oliveyards of Vicopisano, Tuscany

The characteristics of wildfires in the Mediterranean region are changing, with fires growing larger and often surpassing suppression capacities, posing increasing threats to people and property. This shift is partly driven by rural abandonment, which has led to the accumulation of fuel in forests and the encroachment of forested areas into urban spaces, creating a continuity of vegetation that facilitates the spread of fires toward villages. This thesis focuses on Vicopisano, a village in Tuscany with a high wildfire risk and a declining rural economy, historically centered around olive cultivation. Using orthophotos dating back to 1965, abandoned olive yards were mapped to estimate their extent. The wildland-rural and urban-rural interfaces were then analyzed to identify abandoned olive crops in these zones, which can contribute to fire spread. Additionally, the mapping of olive yards was compared with recent wildfire perimeters to assess whether these areas have been burned over time.\\ The results reveal that some abandoned surfaces have been impacted by major fires and experienced more severe damage than those still under cultivation. The outcomes also show that rural abandonment has significantly affected the municipality, with over one-third of its olive yards lost since 1965. Some of these abandoned areas now lie in high-risk fire zones within interface areas. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to manage abandoned lands, reduce fire risk, and protect local communities. Fire management strategies are increasingly shifting toward a comprehensive approach integrating suppression, prevention, prediction, and recovery, with land-use planning playing a key role. The map developed in this study offers a valuable tool for analyzing landscapes and anticipating future changes, contributing to the development of land management strategies that integrate fire risk mitigation with rural development.