China-Philippines Territorial Dispute: The Geopolitical Implications

Despite the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2016 to dismiss the nine-dash line claims of China in the South China Sea based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China does not honor the ruling and continues with its claims based on historic rights that generate tensions with other claimants, especially with the Philippines. This study examines the history and current state of the maritime territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. Guided by the major theories of International Relations such as Realism, Liberalism, and Constructivism and their respective elements, the geopolitical implications including economic and security concerns within and even beyond their respective borders are analyzed. One of the things uncovered is that regardless of the dispute, the bilateral relationship between China and the Philippines can still be good depending on the specific Philippine leader’s priorities. Moreover, a major part of the dispute is the great involvement of the United States (US) through military partnerships such as the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) and Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the Philippines despite being far from the concerned region and not being a signatory to the UNCLOS. The respective stances of other international players such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and other individual states are also delved into. The study generally concludes that this dispute has the potential to be a vital instrument for China to shift the current status quo regionally and globally to its favor.