Assessment of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential in Building Demolition Waste: A Case Study of Baotou City

As a best practice in solid waste management in China, the construction of "Zero-Waste Cities" aims to promote resource recovery and source reduction of waste, including demolition waste. However, existing evaluation systems for quantifying the carbon reduction potential of demolition waste fail to fully reflect the comprehensive benefits of "Zero-Waste City" initiatives and are insufficient for guiding practical implementation. To address this gap, this thesis refines the accounting system for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in demolition waste management and conducts an empirical study in Baotou, a pilot city for "Zero-Waste City" initiatives in China. This study establishes a pollution reduction and carbon mitigation accounting framework for demolition waste management based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. The framework encompasses environmental impact accounting for key stages, including source reduction, classified collection and transportation, and recycling and disposal. It enables the identification of high-pollution and high-emission stages, providing strategic guidance for carbon reduction in demolition waste management. Using this accounting framework, scenario forecasting and empirical analysis were conducted for Baotou City. The results indicate that, in terms of carbon reduction potential per unit mass, the most significant contributions come from the source reduction and recycling of waste metals and plastics. Under the enhanced resource recovery scenario for 2030, the potential annual carbon reduction is estimated at 18,800–23,400 tons, with an additional 2,400 tons of reduction achievable by introducing higher source reduction targets. Specifically, a 10% reduction in waste generation contributes 6.8% of the total carbon reduction. Furthermore, the combined strategies of waste reduction and resource recovery significantly improve 12 other environmental impact indicators, particularly marine and freshwater ecotoxicity. Therefore, in future "Zero-Waste City" initiatives, it is essential to prioritize the resource recovery and source reduction of demolition waste. Additionally, targeted measures should focus on waste types that offer relatively greater carbon reduction benefits.