A Preliminary Risk Assessment of Biomass Production in Northeastern Italy vis-s-vis the European Union's Renewable Energy Directive

Forest biomass plays a central role in the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directives (RED II/III), which aim to advance renewable energy adoption while prioritizing ecological and environmental sustainability. Our research evaluated the sustainability risks associated with biomass production in the tall tree forests of North-eastern Italy, focusing on adherence to RED (II/III) and the Sustainable Resources Verification Scheme (SURE). The analysis employed a comprehensive assessment framework based on the principle of sustainable forest biomass production, encompassing seven criteria and 20 indicators. The findings reveal that North-eastern Italy’s forests, spanning about 1.46 million hectares, have significant biomass production potential, supported by forest cover growth over the last two decades. However, the sustainability risks vary regionally, ranging from medium to high levels. Overall, 70% of the indicators showed positive trends in North-eastern Italy. For criteria Maintenance of biodiversity, the protection of designated areas, and Maintenance of long-term production capacity, which were classified as “low risk.” On the other hand criteria legality of wood harvesting, forest regeneration, GHG emission from the forestry sector and Maintenance of soil quality presented “medium risk” concerns. Among the regions, Veneto demonstrated the highest production capacity and notable improvements in growing stock. However, Trentino exhibited “high risk” for one criterion, “Maintenance of the long-term production capacity of forests”. The study also highlighted governance-related challenges, including regional disparity, fragmented land ownership and decentralized management, which impede the uniform application of sustainability standards. Addressing these issues will require enhanced collaborative governance, robust monitoring systems, and leveraging technological innovations. Such measures are crucial to ensuring the long-term sustainability of biomass production in North-eastern Italy