MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL NICKEL CYCLE: EVALUATING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN NICKEL DEMAND TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

As the global shift towards sustainable energy rises, the role of nickel is rapidly evolving. Nickel has become essential for enabling a sustainable energy future due to their role in battery systems. Consequently, accurate and updated data on nickel stocks and flows is important to establish a quantitative foundation for understanding the comprehensive nickel cycle and decision making for a sustainable nickel supply. A dynamic nickel flow analysis from 1950 to 2023 was conducted to evaluate the current nickel stocks and flows. The nickel cycle comprises seven stages: mining, smelting, refining, fabrication, manufacturing, use phase, and end-of-life. The fabrication process yields first-use products, classified into stainless steel, nickel alloys, alloy steel, stainless steel foundry, nickel alloy foundry, plating, and batteries. Allocation of first use to end use, which consist of mobility & transport, consumer goods, building & construction, energy, process industries, batteries, other industrial components, and others, has been done. Dynamic nickel flow analysis indicates that the in-use stock of nickel by the end of 2023 was 46,000 kt Ni, with 50% of nickel mined since 1950 remaining still in use. The recycling process was closely examined and quantified with recycling potential of 14,000 kt Ni between 2014 and 2023. Approximately 73% of nickel end-of-life scrap is lost during the collection stages and 520 kt of nickel is recycled per year. Furthermore, the quantity of recycled nickel has decreased recently, with collection and recycling input rates of 22% and 14%, respectively, in 2023.