Evaluation of agrifood system models to assess sustainability and livestock production systems

Agrifood systems are the heart of the 2030 Agenda. The sustainable transformation of agrifood systems contributes to all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at varying degrees and is fundamental for their ultimate achievement. Various models have been developed so far and used to simulate agrifood systems' biophysical, economic, and social processes. This review is aimed at investigating these models used in foresight studies to investigate the extent to which the models integrate the three dimensions of sustainability—social, economic, and environmental—and also examine how these models address the role of the livestock sector through their modelling framework. This study reviewed 25 models used for analysing large-scale systemic challenges, scenario development, policies, sustainability, and the related dynamics of agrifood systems. We found a dominance of economic models, partial equilibrium models (n=10), followed by computable general equilibrium market simulation models (n=6) and other types of models (such as biomass-balance models, input-output models, and system dynamics models, n=6). Clustering of model outputs in terms of sustainability indicators reveals that social dimensions are relatively overlooked, being addressed only in 68 percent of models, whereas at least one economic and environmental indicator is included in all models. All the models consider the livestock sector; however, the complexity of production systems and their interactions is comprehensively addressed in less than 40 percent of the models. This review highlights the need for more holistic models with a balanced representation of sustainability dimensions, enhancing social equity, and fostering a food system that promotes health and well-being for people and the environment. The study also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive consideration of livestock systems in the modelling framework to project their future trajectories and implications for global food system sustainability.