Prospective LCA of retrofit scenarios: Decarbonizing residential buildings in Padova by 2035

Decarbonizing the building sector is critical to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This study employs a prospective Life Cycle Assessment (pLCA) to evaluate retrofit scenarios for residential buildings in Padova, Italy, focusing on building envelope improvements by 2035. Key factors such as climate policy, material costs, and circularity are examined to assess the feasibility and environmental impact of retrofitting measures. The analysis prioritizes wall insulation and double-glazed windows, exploring their material compositions and lifecycle impacts. Foreground parameters, including the choice of insulation and window materials, are integrated with background parameters like electricity production and raw material extraction for a comprehensive assessment. Scenarios reflect varying levels of policy support and adoption rates, emphasizing their role in the transition toward net-zero emissions. This work identifies the drivers and barriers to sustainable retrofitting, offering insights to support decarbonization efforts in Padova’s residential building stock and contributing to broader climate goals.