Tren Maya and Environmental Sustainability: A Spatial Analysis of Ecosystem Sensitivity through MCDA in GIS environment

The Yucatán Peninsula, a region of significant ecological and cultural richness, is undergoing major transformation due to the construction of the 1,554-kilometer Tren Maya railway, designed to link key cities and tourist destinations across five southeastern Mexican states. While the project is promoted as a sustainable development initiative aimed at improving regional connectivity and boosting local economies, it also raises serious concerns. The railway cuts through protected ecosystems, Indigenous Maya territories, and fragile karst landscapes. Many local communities have expressed fears over land displacement, environmental degradation, and lack of meaningful consultation. Moreover, the government's framing of the project as a “national priority” has reduced public oversight, making Tren Maya a focal point in ongoing debates around environmental justice, development strategies, and participatory governance in Mexico. This thesis uses a mixed-methods approach, combining documentary analysis of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) with spatial modeling in QGIS and Python to evaluate the environmental, socio-economic, and governance impacts of Tren Maya. Key findings highlight critical overlaps between the railway and areas of high ecological and cultural value, including endangered species habitats, Indigenous lands, and water bodies. The study also reveals systemic flaws in regulatory processes and impact assessments. By integrating spatial analysis with a critique of institutional practices, the thesis underscores the importance of territory-sensitive planning and the inclusion of ecosystem-service valuation and climate accountability in infrastructure development. Ultimately, it offers a replicable model for evaluating megaprojects in biodiversity-rich and socially complex contexts, supporting more equitable and ecologically responsible policy-making.