VOTING ACROSS BORDERS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON IMMIGRANT POLITICS

This thesis investigates the political preferences of native populations and immigrants across Europe, with a particular focus on how attitudes toward immigration shape support for different party families, including the left, right, and populist parties. Using cumulative data from the European Social Survey (ESS) Rounds 5 to 11, we employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analyses to explore the relationship between openness to immigration and political orientation, while controlling for key demographic, socioeconomic, and employment variables. The analysis is disaggregated by migrant generation — natives, first-generation, and second-generation immigrants — to reveal nuanced patterns across groups. Our findings demonstrate that greater openness to immigration is significantly associated with higher support for left-leaning parties and lower support for right-wing and populist parties among natives. Among first- and second-generation immigrants, the relationship is more complex and less pronounced. Additional factors such as education, employment status, sector of employment, age, gender, and religious affiliation also show consistent and important effects on party support. Notably, self-employment tends to decrease left-wing support among immigrants but increase populist support, suggesting the economic positioning of migrants influences their political alignment. These results contribute to the growing literature on migration, political behavior, and party system transformations in Europe. The study also highlights the importance of differentiating between migrant generations and considering multiple dimensions of socioeconomic integration when analyzing political attitudes. Based on the findings, policy recommendations include fostering inclusive labor market policies and promoting narratives that link immigration to broader economic and social benefits, particularly to counteract the populist surge. Keywords: immigration attitudes, political behavior, European Social Survey, party support, migrants, populism, socioeconomic integration, Europe