From Fossil Fuels to Electric: Modeling Battery Electric Vehicle Adoption with Innovation Diffusion and Machine Learning Models

The transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is revolutionising the automotive sector at its core, and Norway is taking the lead. Inspired by pioneering government initiatives, rapid technological progress, and growing environmental awareness, BEV uptake has been gaining a spurt of interest. However, understanding the drivers behind this transition remains crucial for good policy making and strategic business planning. This thesis examines the trends of BEV adoption and predicts future market penetration based on empirical facts and cutting-edge forecasting methods. Drawing on large vehicle registration data, the study also identifies the determinants of adoption and evaluates the effectiveness of policy interventions in influencing market results. Through an investigation of various alternative forecasting methods, the study aims to improve the accuracy of adoption prediction as well as to improve understanding of the ongoing transition to BEVs from ICE vehicles. The findings highlight the key role of government subsidies in stimulating BEV adoption and demonstrate the asymmetric pace of decline in ICE registration. The findings offer valuable advice to policymakers, automotive manufacturers, and energy companies, guiding evidence-based policy measures toward a smoother and faster shift to electric mobility.