Managing VUCA Supply Chains with Lean System: an fsQCA Comparison of Kanban Sizing Approaches

In today’s VUCA environment, where volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity define competitive dynamics, supply chains can no longer rely on forecast-driven planning and excessive inventories as universal buffers. This thesis investigates kanban supermarket sizing as both a technical mechanism to regulate pull flows and a strategic lever to stabilize operations. Developed in collaboration with auxiell, an Italian consultancy specialized in Lean Transformation, the study compares the performance of the traditional kanban sizing formula with a more advanced three-factor formulation that explicitly accounts for contextual constraints. Using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) on a sample of manufacturing firms, the research explores how different combinations of quantitative and qualitative variables influence inventory reduction and service levels. The objective is not to identify a single best practice, but rather to uncover multiple successful configurations, highlighting the conditions under which each formula performs best. By doing so, the thesis contributes to both academic debate and managerial practice, offering guidance for more effective and resilient kanban system implementations in turbulent production contexts.