The Impact of Italy’s CIN Reform on Compliance and Exit in the Short Term Rental Market

The rapid expansion of short-term rental (STR) platforms has raised concerns about transparency, enforcement, and informality in the Italian accommodation sector. To address these challenges, Legislative Decree No. 145/2023 introduced the Codice Identificativo Nazionale (CIN), establishing a national registry for all tourist accommodation and obliging platforms to verify codes prior to publication. This thesis provides an early assessment of the reform, focusing on its initial effects on compliance, exit, and market composition in three contrasting Italian contexts: Naples, Venice, and Trentino (Province of Trento). The empirical analysis draws on quarterly data from InsideAirbnb, transformed into a balanced monthly panel spanning June 2024 to March 2025. Compliance is examined through linear probability models, exit through logistic regressions and predicted probabilities, and market structure through descriptive indicators of host portfolios. The study distinguishes between casual, mid-scale, and professional hosts, classified according to their number of listings in December 2024. The results indicate a sharp increase in compliance after the January 2025 enforcement deadline. Professional and mid-scale hosts reached near-complete compliance almost immediately, while casual hosts adjusted more gradually but converged within a few months. Exit probabilities were higher during the enforcement period, with casual hosts showing the largest relative increase; however, absolute levels of exit remained modest. Despite selective withdrawal among smaller operators, the aggregate distribution of casual, mid-scale, and professional hosts remained broadly stable across all three markets. These findings contribute to debates on digital platform regulation by documenting how a national registration scheme can coincide with widespread formalisation while leaving overall market composition largely unchanged in the short run. This suggests that variation in compliance trajectories was associated with host scale, local enforcement capacity, and institutional context. At the same time, the study highlights key limitations, including the short post-enforcement window, reliance on scraped rather than official data, and the exclusive focus on Airbnb. The evidence thus provides an initial but qualified account of the CIN reform, offering a basis for future research on longer-term dynamics of compliance and professionalisation in the short-term rental market.