Climate change vulnerability assessment of sugarcane production for bio-ethanol supply in Ecuador

The study examines the climate change vulnerability of sugarcane production for bioethanol in Ecuador, focusing on Guayas province, which accounts for most of the national production. An indicator-based approach aligned with the IPCC AR4 framework, ISO 14091:2021 and the GIZ Vulnerability Sourcebook was applied. The methodology relies on secondary data from local meteorological, agricultural and socioeconomic sources as well as FAO’s CROPWAT with Excel spreadsheets to water balance simulation and indicator computation. The assessment compares historical climate (1980-2010) with mid-century projections, under high-emissions SSP5-8.5. The key results display an overall vulnerability index of 0.46 in a 0-1 scale, which implies a moderate vulnerability of the sugarcane ethanol system. By 2050, average wet-season rainfall is projected to drop by about 53%, mean temperature to rise 2.8°C, evapotranspiration to increase around 56% and irrigation water requirement to grow nearly 117%, in contrast to the baseline. These variations denote water stress as reduced rainfall and increased heat double the demand for irrigation. Because of relevance of Guayas, such impacts on sugarcane production have significant impact for Ecuador’s EcoPaís bioethanol program (5% ethanol blend) and agro-economy security. The investigation highlights that moderate vulnerability should not mean several climate risks to yield and livelihoods but encouraging the need for coping strategies aligned with Sustainable Development Goals and the Do No Significant Harm principle. The limitations involve dependence on secondary data, simplified modeling and singe climate scenario, which remind caution in extrapolation of results. Nevertheless, the findings suggest adaptation in water management and policy support to maintain sugarcane ethanol supply chain to Ecuador’s energy security.