Technological Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Chip War

This thesis explores the growing technological rivalry between the United States and the People's Republic of China, with a particular focus on the strategic importance of semiconductors in the Indo Pacific region. By employing the theoretical frameworks of structural realism, complex interdependence, and hegemony theory, the study analyzes how emerging technologies, particularly advanced microchip manufacturing, have become key instruments of geopolitical influence and economic power. The first part of the thesis examines the theoretical underpinnings of technological rivalry, addressing the role of states as primary actors in a structurally anarchic international system. It further discusses how complex interdependence reshapes traditional power dynamics, particularly through global supply chains and technological interconnectedness. In the second part, the analysis shifts to the geopolitical dimension of the Indo Pacific region. Case studies include US efforts to preserve its dominance in semiconductor innovation, China's ambition to attain technological self sufficiency through strategies like "Made in China 2025," and Taiwan’s pivotal role as the global leader in advanced chip production. These dynamics are assessed in light of rising regional tensions and their implications for global security. The third and fourth chapters analyze national strategies and their effects on the global semiconductor industry. The study evaluates US protectionist measures such as the CHIPS and Science Act, China’s investment in domestic innovation, and cooperative efforts like the “Chip 4 Alliance.” The economic consequences of supply chain fragmentation, especially for sectors like automotive and telecommunications, are also explored. The final chapter outlines four potential future scenarios, ranging from the escalation of technological rivalry to pathways of international cooperation. Based on these analyses, the thesis presents policy recommendations aimed at managing technological competition and promoting stability in the Indo Pacific. The study concludes that semiconductor rivalry is not only intensifying existing geopolitical fault lines but also reshaping the global economic order. While Taiwan emerges as a critical node in this contest, the findings highlight both the risks of conflict and the opportunities for cooperative governance in the evolving technology landscape.