The Atlas of Unburnable Carbon in Brazil: GIS-Based Analysis and Socio-Environmental Conflict Assessment for the Phase-Out of Fossil-Fuel Production

Fossil fuel (FF) extraction and combustion are the main drivers of climate change, making it a crucial step to keep a large share of these resources unexploited and unburnt in order to meet the climate change mitigation targets. This thesis explores the case study of Brazil, which is simultaneously one of the world’s 17 “megadiverse” countries and one of the largest FF producers. Despite its ecological richness, Brazil’s government continues to heavily promote oil and gas extraction, raising serious concerns for potential further environmental degradation and climate change exacerbation. Through the use of GIS methodology and open access geodata, this research performs an analysis of spatial interactions between Brazil’s oil and gas assets and environmental sensitivities. Furthermore, by conducting a literature-based assessment, the study examines Brazil’s main producing regions, highlighting the implications of injustice and conflicts between the fossil fuel industry, local population and the environment. The findings of the overlap analysis reveal that phasing out smaller portions of Brazil’s oil resources in ecologically and culturally sensitive areas could generate significant benefits. For instance, leaving 13.5% of onshore oil unextracted would prevent spatial overlaps with protected areas; a 13% reduction would eliminate overlaps with mangrove habitats; while keeping roughly 5% of onshore oil underground would eliminate direct spatial conflicts with all mapped Quilombo settlements. Conversely, the results highlight serious overlook of oil and gas wells proximity impacts. Finally, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) suggests prioritizing production in the Santos Basin, which shows greater economic potential and fewer spatial conflicts with marine ecosystems. As a part of the “World Atlas of Unburnable Carbon” project at the University of Padua, this research aspires to support climate policymaking in Brazil by arguing that a systemic phase-out of FF production must safeguard environmental protection and human rights, and thus foster a just transition.