Influence of moisture transport on the predictability of Mediterranean cyclones: a dynamical systems perspective

Our ability to predict the weather (practical predictability) depends on the quality ofour numerical models and on the initial condition of the atmospheric dynamical system (intrinsic predictability). For the case of Mediterranean cyclones , moisture uptake influence the predictability, but not much is know about the potential influence of moisture transport. Using traces of past cyclones and reanalysis climate models, we aim to investigate the influence of moisture transport on the predictability of extratropical cyclones in a region located in the eastern Mediterranean. Intrinsic predictability will be quantified using tools provided by dynamical systems theory.