The thesis provides an up-to-date analysis of the techno-economic potential of bioenergy in Italy, with particular focus on the strategic role of biomethane, agro-industrial residues, and organic waste within a circular bioeconomy framework. After outlining the evolution of the national energy mix, European targets (RED, REPowerEU), and Italian strategies (PNIEC, PNRR), the work describes the development of the main bioenergy supply chains: bioliquids, biomethane, solid biomass, organic waste, and biomass-based district heating, highlighting trends, regulatory constraints, and future prospects. From a quantitative perspective, the thesis uses data from ENEA, RSE, SNAM, ISPRA, and GSE to estimate the theoretical and technically sustainable potential of biomass, distinguishing among agricultural and agro-industrial residues, OFMSW (organic fraction of municipal solid waste), sewage sludge, and forest biomass. Particular attention is devoted to the potential biomethane production by 2030, comparing different scenarios (5.6–8.1 billion Nm³/year) and analyzing the causes of discrepancies: types of biomass considered, innovative agronomic techniques (sequential cropping), water availability constraints, and logistical limitations. A specific focus is placed on the interregional transfer of organic waste, which reveals a strong asymmetry between Northern Italy—technically well equipped with treatment plants—and Central and Southern Italy, which are rich in resources but lack adequate infrastructure. The techno-economic analysis of bioliquid, solid biomass, biogas, and biomethane plants, carried out using the LCOE/LCOG indicator, shows that none of these technologies is currently competitive without public support. However, biomethane presents costs closest to profitability, thanks to incentive schemes and the possibility of valorizing by-products (digestate, compost, and biogenic CO₂). In conclusion, the thesis argues that Italian bioenergy will not grow uniformly but will undergo a reorientation: stabilization of bioliquids and solid biomass, a niche yet important role for local district heating, and a strong centrality of biomethane as a key vector for transport decarbonization, reducing dependence on imported gas, and developing territorial circular supply chains, especially in the currently underutilized regions of Central and Southern Italy.
La tesi analizza in modo aggiornato il potenziale tecnico-economico delle bioenergie in Italia, con particolare attenzione al ruolo strategico del biometano e dei residui agro-industriali e dei rifiuti organici in un’ottica di bioeconomia circolare. Dopo aver inquadrato l’evoluzione del mix energetico nazionale, gli obiettivi europei (RED, REPowerEU) e la strategia italiana (PNIEC, PNRR), il lavoro descrive l’andamento delle principali filiere bioenergetiche: bioliquidi, biometano, biomassa solida, rifiuti organici e teleriscaldamento da biomasse, evidenziandone trend, vincoli normativi e prospettive. Sul piano quantitativo, la tesi utilizza dati ENEA, RSE, SNAM, ISPRA e GSE per stimare il potenziale teorico e tecnico-sostenibile delle biomasse, distinguendo tra residui agricoli e agro-industriali, FORSU, fanghi e biomassa forestale. Viene approfondito il potenziale di produzione di biometano al 2030, confrontando diversi scenari (5,6–8,1 miliardi Nm³/anno) e analizzando le cause delle discrepanze: tipologia di biomasse considerate, tecniche agronomiche innovative (sequential cropping), limiti idrici e logistici. Un focus specifico è dedicato al trasferimento extraregionale dei rifiuti organici, che evidenzia una forte asimmetria tra Nord, tecnicamente sovra dotato di impianti, e Centro-Sud, ricco di risorse ma povero di infrastrutture. L’analisi tecnico-economica degli impianti a bioliquidi, biomassa solida, biogas e biometano, condotta tramite l’indicatore LCOE/LCOG, mostra come nessuna tecnologia sia oggi competitiva senza supporto pubblico, ma anche come il biometano presenti i costi più vicini alla redditività, grazie agli schemi incentivanti e alla possibilità di valorizzare sottoprodotti (digestato, compost, CO₂ biogenica). In conclusione, la tesi sostiene che le bioenergie italiane non cresceranno in modo uniforme, ma si riorienteranno: stabilizzazione di bioliquidi e biomassa solida, ruolo di nicchia ma importante per il teleriscaldamento locale, e forte centralità del biometano quale vettore chiave per la decarbonizzazione dei trasporti, la riduzione della dipendenza dal gas estero e lo sviluppo di filiere circolari territoriali, soprattutto nelle regioni oggi sottoutilizzate del Centro-Sud
Il potenziale di produzione di bioenergie in Italia
PICCOLO, MATTEO
2025/2026
Abstract
The thesis provides an up-to-date analysis of the techno-economic potential of bioenergy in Italy, with particular focus on the strategic role of biomethane, agro-industrial residues, and organic waste within a circular bioeconomy framework. After outlining the evolution of the national energy mix, European targets (RED, REPowerEU), and Italian strategies (PNIEC, PNRR), the work describes the development of the main bioenergy supply chains: bioliquids, biomethane, solid biomass, organic waste, and biomass-based district heating, highlighting trends, regulatory constraints, and future prospects. From a quantitative perspective, the thesis uses data from ENEA, RSE, SNAM, ISPRA, and GSE to estimate the theoretical and technically sustainable potential of biomass, distinguishing among agricultural and agro-industrial residues, OFMSW (organic fraction of municipal solid waste), sewage sludge, and forest biomass. Particular attention is devoted to the potential biomethane production by 2030, comparing different scenarios (5.6–8.1 billion Nm³/year) and analyzing the causes of discrepancies: types of biomass considered, innovative agronomic techniques (sequential cropping), water availability constraints, and logistical limitations. A specific focus is placed on the interregional transfer of organic waste, which reveals a strong asymmetry between Northern Italy—technically well equipped with treatment plants—and Central and Southern Italy, which are rich in resources but lack adequate infrastructure. The techno-economic analysis of bioliquid, solid biomass, biogas, and biomethane plants, carried out using the LCOE/LCOG indicator, shows that none of these technologies is currently competitive without public support. However, biomethane presents costs closest to profitability, thanks to incentive schemes and the possibility of valorizing by-products (digestate, compost, and biogenic CO₂). In conclusion, the thesis argues that Italian bioenergy will not grow uniformly but will undergo a reorientation: stabilization of bioliquids and solid biomass, a niche yet important role for local district heating, and a strong centrality of biomethane as a key vector for transport decarbonization, reducing dependence on imported gas, and developing territorial circular supply chains, especially in the currently underutilized regions of Central and Southern Italy.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12608/104944