Agro-Environmental Impacts of Climate Change in Mediterranean Coastal Agriculture: Salinization Processes and Food Security Challenges

Mediterranean coastal agriculture is increasingly exposed to environmental stresses linked to climate change, including sea-level rise, salinization, water scarcity, and rising temperatures. The region's complex climatic gradients, long history of land usage, pronounced population and economic activity along low-lying coastal zones all exacerbate these stresses. Mediterranean agriculture faces growing challenges to productivity, land quality, and long-term food security as climate change accelerates, especially in river deltas and coastal plains. Low-lying coastal regions are particularly vulnerable, as food production there depends strongly on suitable soil and water conditions. This thesis examines the vulnerability of Mediterranean coastal agriculture to climate change. Using Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) and statistical analysis in RStudio, maps were produced for major Mediterranean crops, comparing areas below and above 10 m above sea level. This approach enables the identification of regional patterns associated with soil conditions, water availability, and exposure to climate-related stressors including drought and salinization. The results reveal clear contrasts between low-elevation coastal zones, where water-dependent and salinity-sensitive crops are concentrated, and inland areas, where crops adapted to marginal conditions display broader suitability ranges. Two Mediterranean coastal case studies: the Po River Delta and the Tiber River Delta in Italy, are examined to interpret the regional analysis and show how climate change impacts appear in highly productive but vulnerable agricultural landscapes. These sites illustrate how climate-driven processes such as sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and altered hydrological regimes interact with local soil and water conditions to affect agricultural sustainability. The results highlight the necessity of targeted adaptation techniques, such as better crop selection, soil and water management. By identifying vulnerable areas and cultivation patterns, this research aims to support informed decision-making and contribute to the development of sustainable strategies to improve resilience and guarantee food security in Mediterranean coastal regions under ongoing and future climate change.