L'impatto economico della Brexit: un'analisi attraverso il metodo del controllo sintetico.

This thesis analyses the economic impact of Brexit on the UK by focusing on three main dimensions: economic growth, international trade and financial markets. The study is based on the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), an econometric technique designed to estimate the causal effects of unique political or economic events by constructing a counterfactual scenario. Through this approach, the research compares the UK's observed economic performance after the 2016 Brexit referendum with a synthetic version of the country constructed from a weighted combination of comparable economies. The analysis highlights how the uncertainty generated by the Brexit referendum and the subsequent withdrawal from the European Union has affected several aspects of the British economy. In particular, empirical studies suggest a slowdown in economic growth, a reduction in trade flows with the European Union, and increased volatility in financial markets. At the same time, evidence points to changes in foreign direct investment patterns and firms' investment decisions due to increased political and economic uncertainty. Overall, the results of the literature examined in this thesis suggest that Brexit has had significant economic consequences for the United Kingdom, affecting its integration into international markets and altering the structure of its economic relations. The study also discusses possible economic policy strategies that could mitigate the negative effects observed in the post-Brexit period.