Evaluation of Corporate Decarbonization Targets Using Emissions Forecasting and Scenario-Based Gap Analysis: A Case Study of a Multinational Manufacturing Company

Corporate decarbonization targets are frequently set without the analytical infrastructure required to determine, in advance, whether they are actually achievable. This thesis addresses that gap by developing and applying a firm-level framework for evaluating the feasibility of corporate decarbonization targets through emissions forecasting, annual pathway conversion, and scenario-based gap analysis. The framework is developed and tested within a multinational manufacturing company operating in the energy-intensive electrochemical sector, with production facilities across multiple countries. The company has committed to two decarbonization targets measured against a 2022 baseline: a Scope 2 target of 40% renewable electricity by 2026 and 100% by 2030, and a combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 target of a 25% reduction by 2027 and 50% by 2030, relative to a 2022 baseline of 33,915 tCO2eq. Using a bottom-up, plant-level methodology, historical emissions from 2022 to 2025 across sixteen facilities were analysed and projected to 2030 under four combined scenarios, generated by crossing two Scope 2 procurement assumptions (business-as-usual and planned initiatives) with two Scope 1 production-growth assumptions (pessimistic and central), reflecting the distinct drivers underlying each scope. Scope 2 emissions were modelled from plant-level renewable electricity transition schedules, while Scope 1 emissions were projected from plant-level production capacity and utilisation forecasts. The resulting trajectories were compared against a required annual pathway derived from the company's committed milestones, allowing the emissions gap to be quantified at both the interim and final target years and decomposed by scope and plant group. The analysis indicates that the combined target's feasibility depends less on the pace of the renewable energy transition, which is largely on track, than on whether Scope 1 growth from capacity expansion can be actively managed. Building on the findings, the thesis proposes prioritised managerial recommendations, including executing the renewable transition without delay, initiating technical Scope 1 interventions at the identified facilities, and establishing quarterly trajectory governance to detect deviations before they compound. Beyond the specific case, the thesis contributes a reproducible, generalisable methodology that other manufacturing firms can adopt to convert decarbonization commitments into a monitorable, evidence-based annual trajectory.