The Anatomy of Successful and Failed Protests: Lessons from the 2019 Hong Kong and Chile Protests

This thesis intends to dig deeper into what factors influence the success of a protest through the qualitative analysis of two protest movements: the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests and Chile’s Estallido Social, both of which took place in 2019. The case study analysis is based on Charles Tilly's WUNC framework (Worthiness, Unity, Numbers, Commitment), a theory that claims that the strength of a protest relies on the dynamics of these four components. This framework has remained abstract for the most part, so in order to measure the presence of WUNC components, this theory has been linked to Gene Sharp’s Methods of protest action. The analysis consisted of coding articles from two local newspapers (SCMP and La Tercera). The articles were coded by assessing the presence of Sharp’s methods of protest actions in the narration of the events. Each protest method reflected one or more WUNC factors, making it possible to evaluate the degree of presence of each factor per protest movement. Since Tilly’s framework has seldom been applied empirically, this thesis brings an opportunity to test to what extent WUNC factors account for the success or failure of a protest. The analysis also assessed the influence of contextual factors by coding for possible contextual obstacles or advantages. The research found that the level of political opportunity does affect the extent of success of a protest. Moreover, it was found that the efficient display of WUNC factors can lead a movement to success, while an unbalance between the presence of these factors can hinder a protest from achieving its goals.