Narratives in Conflict: Media Influence on Refugee Public Perception in the 2015 and 2022 Migration Crises

Extensive literature has proven that media outlets are pivotal in shaping social reality, particularly in framing social representations of distant social groups such as refugees, thereby bridging the cognitive gap for much of the Western public. This research delves into the pivotal role of media discourse in influencing public opinion and guiding asylum policies during two major migration crises: the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis and the 2022 Ukrainian one. It aims to unravel the complex dynamics of how refugees were differently portrayed in the media during these high-profile events and to understand the subsequent impact on public perceptions and policy decisions. Utilizing the resources of the Global Database of Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) - which monitors the world’s news media across print, broadcast, and web formats on a daily basis and translates the articles into English - this study adopts an innovative methodological framework to systematically analyze a vast array of news articles. The GDELT project's ability to track and code the news provides a unique opportunity to examine the narratives constructed around refugees and to assess how these narratives vary across different national and global media contexts. The specific focus of this research is on eight distinct media contexts: Italy, France, and Germany, selected for their central roles in European governance and their demographic significance; Hungary, Poland, and Lithuania, chosen for their geographical and historical proximity to Ukraine; the United Kingdom, which, despite its recent political detachment from Europe, remains a major global news producer in English; and a broader global context, which serves as a comparative baseline to gauge universal media trends. The media portrayal of refugees is explored by focusing on articles that predominantly feature respectively Syrian and Ukrainian refugees during two critical periods of media activity: the tragic death of three-year-old Syrian refugee Alan Kurdi on September the 2nd 2015 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine February the 24th 2022. These time frames were selected due to their high visibility and the surge in media coverage they provoked, offering a clear lens through which to view the evolution of media discourse. Data extraction is conducted using Structured Query Language (SQL) within the GDELT’s Google BigQuery environment, enabling precise retrieval of relevant articles based on origin, timeframe and featured actors. The subsequent analysis, performed using RStudio, provides a robust statistical and visual representation of the evolution of media sentiment over these periods. The findings from this research reveal a significant racial bias in the portrayal of refugees, with stark disparities evident between the treatment of Syrian and Ukrainian refugees in the media. These discrepancies highlight how media narratives can diverge significantly during similar humanitarian crises, potentially influencing public sentiment and migration policy in profound ways. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, media practitioners, and scholars, equipping them with a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the impact of media narratives on societal responses to global events.